[Politics] Don’t read this if you want to be able to sleep soundly

"Just Jeepin'" (macintux)
09/24/2020 at 10:31 • Filed to: None

There are a lot of ways this year can go dramatically more horribly wrong than it already has.

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DISCUSSION (70)

For Sweden > Just Jeepin'
09/24/2020 at 10:37

Who will stop him?

The state election officials?

The Secret Service?

Conceding an election is a gesture, not an act with any legal outcome

Just Jeepin' > For Sweden
09/24/2020 at 10:40

Read the article. The problem goes way, way beyond that gesture.

CompactLuxuryFan > For Sweden
09/24/2020 at 10:44

The article goes into why neither of those may end up with a clear mandate. Basically unless there’s a landslide against him *on election night* the water could be muddied enough to “ break America”.

Grindintosecond > Just Jeepin'
09/24/2020 at 10:46

‘murica will win the election. As long as God and Guns is voted In, then uh’merica will win! Yaehoo !!!

For Sweden > CompactLuxuryFan
09/24/2020 at 10:48

That’s a dumb assertion

For Sweden > Just Jeepin'
09/24/2020 at 10:49

Who cares what the loser does? The Americans have a pretty robust means to transfer power, no matter how much the loser has hurt feelings.

Just Jeepin' > For Sweden
09/24/2020 at 10:52

No. We don’t. That, again, is the point of the article. The law is muddy and there are many ways to corrupt the voting process. State GOP lawmakers are already talking about appointing electors that will vote Trump even if the vote counting is leaning Democratic.

In short, we thought we were playing basketball with referees, but actually we’ re playing golf with self-scoring and self-penalizing, and one of the players has zero scruples.

The Ghost of Oppo > Just Jeepin'
09/24/2020 at 10:54

I can only guess that Putin must have to schedule hours of his day devoted to just laughing and patting himself on the back

Just Jeepin' > The Ghost of Oppo
09/24/2020 at 10:55

Even if we somehow escape this, I think the game is up. Our system is already broken, and we’re going to be feeling the after effects the rest of our lives.

AdverseMartyr > Just Jeepin'
09/24/2020 at 10:56

As an American living outside of the USA, and just observing the shit show over there. All the players have zero scruples. The last 4.5 years of politics has had zero scruples, and they ignore what the other person’s scorecard says, and the commentators are using different scorecards as well.

I’m pretty sure there is at least one guy keeping score like it’s fantasy football.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Just Jeepin'
09/24/2020 at 10:59

Apparently their pay wall want me to sleep well tonight.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Just Jeepin'
09/24/2020 at 11:01

Maybe this will make you sleep better?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Spanfeller is a twat > Just Jeepin'
09/24/2020 at 11:02

Don’t sweat it... countries with much less legitimate electoral systems have gone through worse electoral crises.... I’m guessing that Trump wouldn’t be able to pull a Bush-like result in the Supreme Court specifically because they have to nominate a new justice. This is great cannon-fodder for democratic senators:

“Do you believe the electoral system allows for credible results”

“How much of an issue is voter impersonation for you”

“Do you believe in the peaceful transfer of power”

atfsgeoff > Just Jeepin'
09/24/2020 at 11:03

The article expresses great despair over how trump may obstruct or contest election results, and yet there is no mention of the dnc potentially doing the same. They are the ones more likely to commit voter fraud and contest a legitimate opponent victory.

That being said, even if shit goes down, I consider it a good opportunity to overhaul the two party system. If e nough chaos ensues, something will change.

Just Jeepin' > atfsgeoff
09/24/2020 at 11:11

The only people caught committing voter fraud in recent years are Republicans. Why is the DNC more likely to do so?

All the experts agree voter fraud is negligible, and certainly not enough to overturn the presidential election. The GOP is risking the entire governmental system by talking about not accepting the voting at all.

facw > atfsgeoff
09/24/2020 at 11:15

How do you figure the DNC is more likely to commit voter fraud? Why would the party well ahead in the polling resort to fraud?

JawzX2, Boost Addict. 1.6t, 2.7tt, 4.2t > AdverseMartyr
09/24/2020 at 11:16

It’s a fucking shit show. The divisions are so gross and the idealism so entrenched that both sides have gone off the fucking deep end. Also, too much business in politics, otherwise we’d be talking about what progressive was going to take over Bernie’s presidential legacy.

Merkin Muffley > Just Jeepin'
09/24/2020 at 11:16

The only people caught committing voter fraud in recent years are Republicans. Why is the DNC more likely to do so?

That's not what the data says.

Spanfeller is a twat > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
09/24/2020 at 11:19

I remember Hillary had like an 85% chance of winning according to them....

CobraJoe > AdverseMartyr
09/24/2020 at 11:20

As an American living outside of the USA, and just observing the shit show over there. All the players have zero scruples.

No offense, but the “Everyone’s an asshole, don’t trust them!” type of view is exactly what the assholes want you to think.

Most people are reasonable, even if they disagree with you. Most politicians are working to help people, even if you have a different belief in the proper course of action.

Sometime, somewhere , you have to trust people to actually be good. But that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t call out asshole behavior.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Spanfeller is a twat
09/24/2020 at 11:25

71% actually - at least he was one of the ones saying Trump had “a puncher’s chance” in 2016.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/

The Snowman > Merkin Muffley
09/24/2020 at 11:26

Can you site some sources please?

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > Merkin Muffley
09/24/2020 at 11:26

What “data”?

MrSnrub > Just Jeepin'
09/24/2020 at 11:28

Ha, I knew it would be this article just from your title. Yeah, the electoral college stuff is nightmare-inducing, if a little outlandish. I’m really worried about mail-in ballots, though, and I can easily see a 6-3 Supreme Court stepping in and and fabricating some kind of absurd legalist pretext for stopping or invalidating the counts before they can decide the election for Biden.

Incidentally I don’t think anyone should vote by mail in this election unless they absolutely have to (very high covid risk or living outside the US).

Just Jeepin' > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
09/24/2020 at 11:30

Not really, because it’s not guaranteed to actually matter who wins the vote, even taking into account the elector al college. The GOP is talking about choosing their preferred electors even if the vote is headed Democratic in the state, and that’s just scratching the surface of the ways this can go wrong.

My bird IS the word > Just Jeepin'
09/24/2020 at 11:32

My my. If only the people had some way to throw off the shackles of an opressive government. Some way, or device, to facilitate a revolution against the military controlled by said government. Alas, no such constitutionally guaranteed method exists.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Just Jeepin'
09/24/2020 at 11:34

I couldn’t read the article, but it sounds like some fear-mongering to get more Ds and/or Trump-haters to show up at the polls. Whatever it takes for him to get gone, I guess.

Just Jeepin' > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
09/24/2020 at 11:40

I’d give 2:1 odds that Trump is still president after Inauguration Day, legitimately or not.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Just Jeepin'
09/24/2020 at 11:42

Well, I sure hope you’re wrong.

atfsgeoff > Just Jeepin'
09/24/2020 at 11:53

The only people caught committing voter fraud in recent years are Republicans.

Demonstrably untrue:

https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud/search?state=PA

Just in my state alone there have been over a dozen recent proven/convicted cases of voter fraud, the majority of which were democrats.

It’s not common but it’s not extremely rare either. And while a tiny percentage of voter fraud won’t affect nationwide popular vote results , it could affect local and state election results, which are important because electoral college.

nermal > Just Jeepin'
09/24/2020 at 11:54

Look at the source . In other news, the main story in this month’s copy of the Central Kentucky Journal of Huntin’ Fishin’ and Cousin Kissin’ is a thrilling expose titled “ Biden and Harris Want To Ban Mud Bogs - Obama 2.0 Doesn’t Just Want To Take Your Guns, He Wants Your Truck Too! ”

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > Spanfeller is a twat
09/24/2020 at 11:57

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

A bit less than that. Everyone sees 71 % as a “sure thing”, but that still leaves more the a 1 in 4 chance that it doesn’t happen. While 3 in 4 are good odd, it’s certainly not a guarantee.

Spanfeller is a twat > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
09/24/2020 at 11:58

Ah, Clinton’s big decline after Comey’s patriotic screw up.

koawaft1 > Just Jeepin'
09/24/2020 at 11:58

It can go both ways. I live in a small state and we have more electoral votes per capita than the large states. We are also democratic controlled. There is a push for our votes to go to the candidate that gets the most votes in the country. This basically takes away my vote. Also the electoral college is basically in existence to give more power to smaller states. I don’t agree with giving that up.

Trump could win our state but our votes would go to Biden because he won california by a lot. I am not a trump supporter in any way but that seems wrong.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
09/24/2020 at 12:00

It’s not really fear mongering, it’s just going through the hypothetical scenario that Trump refuses to accept defeat. IF that does happen (which let’s be honest, if Trump loses, is probably a 50/50 bet) the law gets very muddy and ambiguous about how to proceed. Basically, if neither side concedes, there will be mass confusion.

Chariotoflove > Just Jeepin'
09/24/2020 at 12:07

My friend, I think all this hand wringing is overblown and drastically underestimates the stability of our system and the near universal commitment Americans have to it. The last time we had a closely contested election result, the country was tense for weeks. It was the Democrats that put things in turmoil that time, and the country birthed ridiculous terms like “hanging chad”. In the end, we had an orderly transition of power that followed the rule of law despite the cries of “appointed president!” and “abolish the electoral college!” by many who were dissatisfied with the outcome. Look back even further, when our system was brand new, and see how one of the first elections had to use the House of Representatives tie breaker rule to select a president.

My point is that readers need to see though the clickbait headlines that articles like this put out to grab eyes. Get some historical perspective on our electoral process. Our system is strong and stable not because it’s perfect or even because it’s the best one we could have. It’s strong because we as a society are fundamentally committed to it. There will be no revolts, no tossing out of process, only possible eventual change of the system through the prescribed constitutional methods if enough decide to vote for that.

We will have a president and an orderly transfer of power when needed. No single election will “break” our country.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
09/24/2020 at 12:07

I mean, the fact that Fox News is, for the most part, state radio now, and their listeners believe that anything other news outlets report is “fake news” does set things up to get ugly.

At least other R leaders are saying that they’ll accept the results.

https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-hillary-clinton-elections-joe-biden-voting-fraud-and-irregularities-f3faaa31349b9613d761a1760a42763b

Merkin Muffley > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
09/24/2020 at 12:12

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/hundreds-of-mail-in-votes-already-set-aside-due-to-paterson-voter-fraud-claims/2414171/

Just Jeepin' > Chariotoflove
09/24/2020 at 12:12

Four years ago I believed we were committed to rule of law as a society . I no longer believe that. We have very muddy law around much of this, a t least one party who is openly expressing their wish to take advantage of anything they can to subvert the vote, and two branches of the media (and media consumers) who can’t agree on what’s factual.

When we can’t agree on facts as a country, how can we agree on outcomes?

Milky > atfsgeoff
09/24/2020 at 12:15

Bruh. 20 cases over 20 years in a state where 6 million people vote? That sounds like the definition of extremely rare.

D ont get me started on the idiotic rules / registered voter dumps that repu blicans do.

MiniGTI - now with XJ6 > Chariotoflove
09/24/2020 at 12:18

Thanks for that. I have the greatest hope you’re right.

atfsgeoff > Milky
09/24/2020 at 12:18

20 cases over 20 years that have been documented, caught and convicted. No telling how much more happens under the radar.

Dont get me started on the idiotic rules / registered voter dumps that republicans do.

Please, do start.

Milky > atfsgeoff
09/24/2020 at 12:25

Get to reading

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_suppression_in_the_United_States

Also, “ No telling how much more happens under the radar.”

Chariotoflove > Just Jeepin'
09/24/2020 at 12:26

Stop listening to everyone’s rhetoric and divisiveness. It’s so easy to read all this political news and get immersed in the turmoil. In reality, this is not among even the top political upheavals our nation has faced and survived. Do you have any idea how big an issue voter fraud was in our past? Whole states’ electoral votes were probably corrupted by it. We have much better checks on the process now.

No one is going to march on Washington and thr ow down the government. No one is going to shred the C onstitution. No matter who wins in November, a lot of folks will be vocally unhappy about it, and maybe even threaten to do something about it., but we’ll be fine.

Just Jeepin' > Chariotoflove
09/24/2020 at 12:35

Of course I hope you’re right. I have little such hope, however. Our institutions have been sorely tested in recent times , and mostly have come up wanting.

barnie > Chariotoflove
09/24/2020 at 12:46

Thank you for that. Breath of fresh air! 5 times the Electoral College has settled on a president that didn’t win the popular vote. This modern 24/7 propaganda that calls itself news is getting so many so riled. Probably 20% of it has grains of truth, the rest is rhetoric and sensationalism. Rule 1 is We will never know the truth about what is going on up in DC. To corrupt Hue y Lewis, “If we can make it bleed, it leads!”.

atfsgeoff > Milky
09/24/2020 at 13:02

Fascinating:

A 2019 paper by University of Bologna and Harvard Business School economists found that voter ID laws had “no negative effect on registration or turnout, overall or for any group defined by race, gender, age, or party affiliation.” [27] A 2019 study in the journal Electoral Studies found that the implementation of voter ID laws in South Carolina reduced overall turnout but did not have a disparate impact. [28] 2019 studies in Political Science Quarterly and the Atlantic Economic Journal found no evidence that voter ID laws have a disproportionate influence on minorities. [29] [30]

Milky > atfsgeoff
09/24/2020 at 13:11

*ignores Al, WI, GA etc dropping hundreds of thousands of mostly dem voters from registration and Texas closing 500 polling places in black areas. plus more

*screams loudly a few dems in Pennsylvania committed fraud!

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > Merkin Muffley
09/24/2020 at 13:32

A single data point is not proof of anything widespread. Plus your claim was that the data says the DNC in more likely to commit voter fraud than the GOP, that article specifically says, “ it is unclear if they help one specific candidate”.

Chariotoflove > barnie
09/24/2020 at 13:35

Everyone gets so focused on who will be president. The most important thing is that we will have a president.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > atfsgeoff
09/24/2020 at 14:40

Even if it’s a hundred fold difference, that’s still only 2000 cases over 20 years. Plus, I don’t know where you are getting the “more dems than repubs”...most of the summaries there include no party affiliation.

And finally, I would be willing to bet, both parties commit voter fraud at around the same rate. I don’t buy that Democrats do it more than Republicans any more than Republicans do it more than Democrats.

Taylor Martin > Just Jeepin'
09/24/2020 at 15:57

I know we’re supposed to have faith in our governing bodies and all, but as we get closer and closer I’m losing most of that. If the election comes up Biden, the “peaceful transition of power” could very well end up sounding like two kids arguing over a toy. Trump wants to keep the toy, but mom (the voters) say it’s Biden’s turn.

I’ve read a few comments where people have faith in the human race. No matter who wins, the other side will be up in arms. If Trump wins, Dems will absolutely go to the streets. If Biden wins, Reps will go to the streets. There will be violence, either in looting and protest or from people practicing their second amendment rights. It’s going to get ugly, because we’re already broken.

I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t absolutely petrified, and if shit hits the fan as hard as I think it’s going to, I don’t know how our divided nation would recover.

fintail > Chariotoflove
09/24/2020 at 16:28

Unfortunately, some of the rhetoric is coming from the decomposing mango in the oval office today.

fintail > atfsgeoff
09/24/2020 at 16:29

“ They are the ones more likely to commit voter fraud and contest a legitimate opponent victory.”

Gonna have to kindly ask you to explain that one. I won’t hold my breath.

fintail > Merkin Muffley
09/24/2020 at 16:30

Put up or shut up, you aren’t being asked.

fintail > Just Jeepin'
09/24/2020 at 16:30

It’s been broken for a couple generations now.

Just Jeepin' > fintail
09/24/2020 at 16:34

It’s always tricky to define exactly when something like this broke , but yeah, likely so. I worry we’re approaching a point where it’ll be irrevocably broken.

fintail > Just Jeepin'
09/24/2020 at 16:38

I think the combination of trickle down/offshoring idiocy and southern strategy just several years before might have combined to create irreparable damage.

Socio-economic chasms and faltering economic mobility say enough for me.

fintail > atfsgeoff
09/24/2020 at 16:39

Heritage.org

Let’s get into gerrymandering and voter suppression too.

barnie > Chariotoflove
09/24/2020 at 17:03

Amen. I’m really curious about what’s gonna happen between Nov 3 and Jan 2?, though. There may be some really good political fireworks. Grateful that I’m living in a small town near a military base.

Chariotoflove > barnie
09/24/2020 at 17:11

My eyes are on how things develop even before that. Who gets appointed to the Supreme Court will like ly have a more lasting impact on the country than who sits in the White House the next four years.

barnie > Chariotoflove
09/24/2020 at 17:24

Better. Between now and Jan 2?. SCOTUS nominee, pres election and how many of these swamp dwellers (Congress) will be tossed out. And there’s my local elections, too. Should be a good shakeup down here. Camden Co. GA doesn’t need a spaceport and St Marys doesn’t need to own so much land that doesn’t produce taxes. And then there’s that damn fence ordinance. Yes, we live in interesting times.

AdverseMartyr > CobraJoe
09/25/2020 at 05:53

If either party was trustworthy, the candidates for the presidency the last two elections would be worthwhile. Both parties have (twice) passed over decent candidates in favor of the worst options available.

Look, I grew up in Illinois. You’ll never convince me that politicians at the state level and above have much regard for helping people beyond the benefits it gives them, and the lobbyists who are giving them gifts.

CobraJoe > AdverseMartyr
09/25/2020 at 10:06

In your opinion, they passed over decent candidates in favor of the worst option.

Also, the “they” in this situation are the largest plurality if not majority of voters in the primary of their party.

In other words, it was the opinion of millions of people (almost 18.5 million in Biden’s case), that the chosen candidate was the best option. If that many people disagree with you, perhaps they have a opinion worth considering?

Yeah, your state had ( and has) some horrible politicians. But you realize that is not the norm, right?

Granted, it takes a certain amount of narcissism (or an inflated self importance) to run for a national level office, but that doesn’t automatically make them inconsiderate.

But, if they do assholish things with no remorse, that is a huge red flag that they don’t have your best interest in mind.

All I’m saying is: Give people (even politicians) a chance. If they act like assholes, call them out. Until then, maybe they’re OK.

AdverseMartyr > CobraJoe
09/25/2020 at 10:57

Sorry, I’m of the opinion that the whole government (elected) at the national level needs replaced. The number of deadlocks and BS taking place on the national level is way too great. They’re playing all these taking breaks and not passing bills causing shutdowns because there is no budget or funding, exempting themselves from the laws they create, voting themselves raises, following the money from lobbyists, holding up bills with only one purpose until they get pork added in, and so much more. How much more do the Democrats and Republicans have to do ( collectively) to deserve the title of assholes in your opinion?

And as for the primaries... There’s been pretty decent proof that they are rigged from within the party already, and remember I’m from Illinois. My grandfather who died 13 years ago has had a ballot waiting for him for 3 presidential elections, and will probably have one for this year’s election as well. (and my family made sure that the information for him to be removed was handled, but he’s evidently still voting.) So yeah my faith in the system is pretty non-existent. It’s a big reason why I’m in favor of Photo State ID being necessary to vote. If fraud is so easy to do for the actual election then how much more for the lesser stuff.

CobraJoe > AdverseMartyr
09/25/2020 at 11:29

How much more do the Democrats and Republicans have to do (collectively) to deserve the title of assholes in your opinion?

An asshole is a person, not a political party. (Though, in my opinion, one party tends to collect more assholes than the other.)

The number of deadlocks and BS taking place on the national level is way too great. They’re playing all these taking breaks and not passing bills causing shutdowns because there is no budget or funding, exempting themselves from the laws they create, voting themselves raises, following the money from lobbyists, holding up bills with only one purpose until they get pork added in, and so much more.

And there is a relatively small group of people orchestrating the large actions.

As for the other stuff, you can get involved. Call your senator and representative. Donate to people and causes that you support. Vote.

(I would love to see the end of large scale lobbies though, and that might take a larger movement than just a few people calling their senator.)

And as for the primaries... There’s been pretty decent proof that they are rigged from within t he party already,

I have no clue how you can “rig” how people vote. Short of actively falsifying the numbers (which would be a controversy that some witness would be eager to expose), there is no way to hide the number of votes each candidate received. While the popular vote doesn’t directly elect the candidate for each party, it would be a very obvious move to nominate someone who didn’t receive the popular vote.

My grandfather who died 13 years ago has had a ballot waiting for him for 3 presidential elections, and will probably have one for this year’s election as well. (and my family made sure that the information for him to be removed was handled, but he’s evidently still voting.) So yeah my faith in the system is pretty non-existent. It’s a big reason why I’m in favor of Photo State ID being necessary to vote. If fraud is so easy to do for the actual election then how much more for the lesser stuff.

Have you actually tried sending in a vote for your grandfather? Have you experimented to see how easy it would actually be to cast a fraudulent vote? Do you have any numbers saying how many of those ballots were sent out for dead persons, and how many were returned and counted?

Point is, just because your deceased grandfather received a ballot, it doesn’t mean that it is a common occurrence , or that these ballots will be sent in with a fraudulent vote, or even counted as a vote when tallied.

Chariotoflove > fintail
09/25/2020 at 12:23

Yeah, ignore that too. Most of it is just hot air that comes to nothing.

fintail > Chariotoflove
09/25/2020 at 12:32

Sadly, the bit that comes to fruition will just be a deep hole that has to be repaired by someone else i n the future.

Merkin Muffley > fintail
09/29/2020 at 19:14